5A State Rankings

(Mathematically-derived.  Last update: 11/13/2006)

Using the scores of the games that have already been played among Texas teams, it is possible to define mathematically an "offensive strength" and a "defensive strength" for each team, and to do so in a mathematically optimal manner (in the sense that no other choice of strengths will generate a better approximation to the scores of the games that have already been played). 

The higher the strength number, the stronger the team's offense or defense is. The sum of the offensive and defensive strengths is the overall strength of the team.  That number can be used to determine a ranking for each team.

Don't take these too seriously.  Mistakes have no doubt been made in gathering the scores and resolving the the team names.  (A few of these are not even Texas teams, and some are probably not 5A teams.  Any team that has played at least two 5A Texas games this year, even in the pre-season, is on the list.)

Example prediction: If Southlake Carroll were to play Euless Trinity, the predicted score would be 38 to 25 in favor of Southlake Carroll, because 38 = 56.3 - 18.6, and 25 = 45.8 - 21.3 (rounded).  The predicted margin of victory is 13 = 77.6 - 64.4.

If the difference in overall strengths between two teams is small (less than, say, 6 or 7), the game is too close to call!  Furthermore, the predicted winner is often wrong, even when the predicted margin of victory is large.  All that really counts is what the teams do on the field!

Compare with the top-25 rankings published by 5atexasfootball.com.

(Click on a column header to sort by that column.  Clements is listed here as "FB Clements".  The other teams in the Division II Region 3 playoffs are highlighted in fuchsia.)

5A State Team Strengths

Rank Team Offensive Defensive Overall
1 Southlake Carroll 56.3 21.3 77.6
2 Euless Trinity 45.8 18.6 64.4
3 Cedar Hill 45.7 15.6 61.3
4 Lufkin 49.1 11.1 60.2
5 Spring Westfield 35.0 23.5 58.5
6 Plano East 37.3 20.5 57.8
7 Coppell 45.7 11.9 57.6
8 Cypress Fairbanks 41.1 16.2 57.3
9 Katy 36.5 18.1 54.6
10 Smithson Valley 35.2 18.6 53.8
11 DeSoto 37.0 15.8 52.8
12 South Grand Prairie 42.1 10.7 52.8
13 A&M Consolidated 36.0 16.0 52.0
14 Allen 40.7 11.2 51.9
15 Leander 36.5 15.2 51.7
16 GP North Shore 36.8 14.5 51.3
17 Colleyville Heritage 42.4 8.7 51.1
18 Cypress Ridge 36.5 14.0 50.5
19 Shreveport Evangel (LA) 31.2 19.2 50.4
20 Plano West 45.3 5.0 50.3
21 Cypress Falls 39.2 10.6 49.8
22 Lamar Consolidated 38.7 10.3 49.0
23 Keller Fossil Ridge 40.2 8.4 48.6
24 Hebron 31.8 16.3 48.1
25 Longview 36.8 11.2 48.0
26 Garland 35.3 12.3 47.6
27 Mesquite 35.6 11.9 47.5
28 Mesquite Poteet 33.9 13.4 47.3
29 Bryan 30.1 16.6 46.7
30 Justin Northwest 35.3 11.0 46.3
31 Flower Mound 32.8 13.4 46.2
32 RR Westwood 39.5 6.4 45.9
33 SA MacArthur 39.1 6.8 45.9
34 Katy Cinco Ranch 33.1 12.6 45.7
35 Tyler Lee 29.2 16.5 45.7
36 SA Churchill 33.8 11.6 45.4
37 Austin Westlake 38.1 6.3 44.4
38 Klein 34.2 9.7 43.9
39 SA Jay 33.3 10.6 43.9
40 SA Madison 37.3 6.3 43.6
41 Converse Judson 30.1 13.4 43.5
42 Lubbock Monterey 37.2 6.1 43.3
43 Grapevine 34.8 8.5 43.3
44 The Woodlands 25.7 17.5 43.2
45 Copperas Cove 30.6 12.1 42.7
46 Tyler John Tyler 34.5 8.0 42.5
47 SA Reagan 31.9 10.3 42.2
48 Round Rock 33.9 8.0 41.9
49 Rockwall 38.6 3.3 41.9
50 Odessa Permian 37.7 4.1 41.8
51 Richardson Berkner 33.3 8.0 41.3
52 Richardson Pearce 36.1 4.9 41.0
53 Waco 29.8 11.2 41.0
54 Aledo 32.7 8.3 41.0
55 Mansfield Summit 40.0 0.3 40.3
56 Beaumont Central 17.1 22.5 39.6
57 Texas City 23.4 15.6 39.0
58 SA O'Connor 31.3 7.5 38.8
59 Dallas Jesuit 28.9 9.9 38.8
60 Killeen Ellison 31.3 7.4 38.7
61 SA Marshall 29.8 8.9 38.7
62 Flower Mound Marcus 31.1 7.4 38.5
63 North Mesquite 31.5 6.9 38.4
64 Austin High 29.3 8.9 38.2
65 Lake Highlands 28.0 9.9 37.9
66 Schertz Clemens 25.0 12.9 37.9
67 Klein Forest 25.6 12.2 37.8
68 Cedar Park 27.4 10.4 37.8
69 Duncanville 28.8 8.8 37.6
70 Arlington 36.1 1.5 37.6
71 Pflugerville 36.0 1.4 37.4
72 Burleson 29.3 8.0 37.3
73 SA Warren 31.5 5.8 37.3
74 Plano 23.0 14.2 37.2
75 Hurst L.D. Bell 24.9 12.2 37.1
76 CC Calallen 22.3 14.4 36.7
77 SA Clark 29.1 7.6 36.7
78 Irving MacArthur 35.5 1.1 36.6
79 Beaumont West Brook 38.8 -2.4 36.4
80 Lewisville 22.5 13.3 35.8
81 Seguin 29.4 6.4 35.8
82 Klein Oak 36.6 -1.3 35.3
83 Arlington Bowie 33.5 1.8 35.3
84 Georgetown 27.4 7.7 35.1
85 Cypress Creek 37.0 -2.1 34.9
86 Jersey Village 25.5 9.1 34.6
87 Houston Stratford 26.8 7.8 34.6
88 Dallas Carter 30.3 4.2 34.5
89 Arlington Martin 33.6 0.7 34.3
90 EP Montwood 36.7 -2.5 34.2
91 Houston Lamar 30.9 3.3 34.2
92 SA Roosevelt 22.4 11.7 34.1
93 South Garland 26.5 7.3 33.8
94 Baytown Lee 32.1 1.7 33.8
95 North Garland 34.3 -0.8 33.5
96 Arlington Lamar 28.0 5.3 33.3
97 Keller 36.1 -3.0 33.1
98 Humble 26.9 5.9 32.8
99 La Marque 23.3 9.3 32.6
100 Pearland 31.9 0.5 32.4
101 Mansfield Timberview 24.5 7.7 32.2
102 Laredo United 34.5 -2.5 32.0
103 SA Alamo Heights 26.1 5.8 31.9
104 Abilene 27.5 4.0 31.5
105 Cypress Springs 25.9 5.4 31.3
106 Haltom 32.3 -1.4 30.9
107 Richland 25.9 4.9 30.8
108 RR Stony Point 25.9 4.8 30.7
109 Brazoswood 22.1 8.3 30.4
110 Wylie 29.3 1.1 30.4
111 Langham Creek 29.0 1.2 30.2
112 Midland 28.5 0.9 29.4
113 Arlington Seguin 21.6 7.8 29.4
114 La Porte 31.9 -2.7 29.2
115 Keller Central 29.0 -0.2 28.8
116 Katy Taylor 21.4 7.0 28.4
117 Austin McCallum 19.8 8.4 28.2
118 Clear Lake 29.3 -1.3 28.0
119 Rowlett 24.6 3.4 28.0
120 Deer Park 24.1 3.8 27.9
121 EP Coronado 26.7 0.9 27.6
122 Kingwood 25.3 1.8 27.1
123 Dallas Skyline 22.6 4.4 27.0
124 FB Marshall 23.8 3.0 26.8
125 Houston Westside 26.8 -0.0 26.8
126 Grand Prairie 24.7 2.1 26.8
127 Carrollton Creekview 25.8 0.9 26.7
128 Round Rock McNeil 24.5 2.2 26.7
129 Strake Jesuit 25.6 0.9 26.5
130 FB Dulles 29.0 -2.6 26.4
131 Galveston Ball 23.1 3.2 26.3
132 Amarillo 25.9 0.3 26.2
133 Spring 27.7 -1.8 25.9
134 FB Clements 23.3 2.4 25.7
135 San Marcos 20.1 5.5 25.6
136 Conroe 19.7 5.5 25.2
137 Clear Creek 22.1 3.1 25.2
138 Alief Taylor 18.0 6.9 24.9
139 TW College Park 25.5 -0.7 24.8
140 McAllen Memorial 32.9 -8.3 24.6
141 Hays Consolidated 21.1 3.5 24.6
142 Wolfforth Frenship 27.2 -2.7 24.5
143 SA Lee 28.8 -4.4 24.4
144 FB Hightower 22.8 1.5 24.3
145 Alief Elsik 31.6 -7.3 24.3
146 Alief Hastings 25.2 -1.0 24.2
147 Dallas Kimball 17.6 6.5 24.1
148 SA Taft 22.3 1.6 23.9
149 Denton Ryan 28.1 -4.2 23.9
150 Killeen 20.9 3.0 23.9
151 Weatherford 24.7 -1.2 23.5
152 Killeen Shoemaker 24.3 -1.2 23.1
153 EP Riverside 18.4 4.5 22.9
154 North Crowley 23.0 -0.4 22.6
155 Mesquite Horn 17.9 4.7 22.6
156 Arlington Houston 28.3 -5.9 22.4
157 Midland Lee 22.5 -0.2 22.3
158 Irving Nimitz 16.1 6.2 22.3
159 Aldine MacArthur 18.1 4.1 22.2
160 Lubbock Coronado 22.7 -0.6 22.1
161 Aldine 27.1 -5.0 22.1
162 Killeen Harker Heights 17.4 4.6 22.0
163 CC Ray 26.1 -4.3 21.8
164 Weslaco 32.9 -11.2 21.7
165 SA Southwest 19.7 1.9 21.6
166 Gregory-Portland 22.3 -0.7 21.6
167 EP Hanks 28.2 -6.7 21.5
168 San Benito 24.3 -3.0 21.3
169 Aldine Eisenhower 20.9 0.3 21.2
170 Conroe Oak Ridge 21.7 -0.5 21.2
171 EP Americas 23.3 -2.2 21.1
172 Irving 19.0 2.0 21.0
173 Aldine Nimitz 21.0 -0.2 20.8
174 CC Flour Bluff 28.3 -7.7 20.6
175 Houston Memorial 16.2 4.4 20.6
176 McAllen 24.5 -4.0 20.5
177 Channelview 21.7 -1.2 20.5
178 EP Franklin 14.7 5.5 20.2
179 Pasadena Memorial 17.2 2.5 19.7
180 Los Fresnos 27.8 -8.1 19.7
181 Houston Yates 14.8 4.7 19.5
182 Amarillo Tascosa 20.0 -0.6 19.4
183 San Angelo Central 15.3 3.8 19.1
184 SA East Central 27.9 -8.9 19.0
185 Abilene Cooper 29.0 -10.0 19.0
186 South San Antonio 17.7 0.4 18.1
187 Port Arthur Memorial 25.7 -7.6 18.1
188 Odessa 21.9 -4.0 17.9
189 CC Carroll 18.0 -0.2 17.8
190 Naaman Forest 21.0 -3.2 17.8
191 Temple 14.1 3.7 17.8
192 PSJA North 14.6 2.8 17.4
193 Austin Lake Travis 14.9 2.3 17.2
194 Harlingen South 22.3 -5.2 17.1
195 Houston Madison 17.0 -0.0 17.0
196 Converse Wagner 23.5 -6.7 16.8
197 Baytown Sterling 16.3 0.3 16.6
198 Pasadena Dobie 27.5 -11.0 16.5
199 FB Elkins 26.3 -10.4 15.9
200 Mansfield 18.2 -2.5 15.7
201 Klein Collins 24.2 -8.6 15.6
202 Rosenberg Terry 14.9 0.7 15.6
203 Carrollton Smith 20.6 -5.2 15.4
204 Kerrville Tivy 19.5 -4.4 15.1
205 Angleton 16.0 -1.2 14.8
206 Boerne 14.1 0.6 14.7
207 FB Austin 10.2 4.3 14.5
208 Austin Bowie 17.2 -2.9 14.3
209 Lakeview Centennial 19.9 -6.1 13.8
210 Alice 22.3 -8.6 13.7
211 Clear Brook 19.2 -5.6 13.6
212 Katy Mayde Creek 16.1 -2.7 13.4
213 FB Kempner 9.0 4.4 13.4
214 Beaumont Ozen 14.8 -1.4 13.4
215 Tomball 16.3 -3.7 12.6
216 Victoria Memorial 17.7 -5.2 12.5
217 Bastrop 17.6 -6.1 11.5
218 Alvin 16.5 -5.3 11.2
219 FB Willowridge 15.4 -4.4 11.0
220 The Colony 12.3 -1.4 10.9
221 Laredo Alexander 14.3 -3.4 10.9
222 Houston Chavez 23.3 -12.8 10.5
223 Sachse 23.1 -12.8 10.3
224 EP Socorro 12.0 -1.9 10.1
225 FW South Hills 20.5 -10.5 10.0
226 Houston Westbury 13.2 -3.4 9.8
227 Harlingen 12.4 -2.7 9.7
228 EP Eastwood 17.4 -7.9 9.5
229 Huntsville 17.6 -8.6 9.0
230 Conroe Caney Creek 11.8 -3.0 8.8
231 CC King 14.6 -6.1 8.5
232 SA Holmes 19.0 -10.7 8.3
233 Magnolia 12.2 -4.0 8.2
234 Rio Grande City 18.6 -10.5 8.1
235 Mercedes 9.8 -2.0 7.8
236 Uvalde 10.3 -2.6 7.7
237 Big Spring 22.4 -14.9 7.5
238 Edinburg Economedes 10.0 -3.0 7.0
239 McKinney 9.0 -2.1 6.9
240 Houston Washington 13.1 -6.8 6.3
241 Belton 17.3 -11.0 6.3
242 Del Rio 12.0 -5.8 6.2
243 EP El Dorado 12.3 -6.4 5.9
244 FB Bush 15.3 -10.0 5.3
245 Spring Woods 21.1 -16.2 4.9
246 South Houston 10.9 -6.4 4.5
247 Richmond Foster 19.1 -14.8 4.3
248 CC Moody 14.7 -10.4 4.3
249 Carrollton Turner 16.4 -12.2 4.2
250 Las Cruces (NM) 18.0 -14.3 3.7
251 EP Bel Air 9.1 -6.3 2.8
252 Katy Morton Ranch 11.1 -9.1 2.0
253 Pasadena Rayburn 8.9 -6.9 2.0
254 PSJA High 8.0 -6.1 1.9
255 Granbury 14.1 -12.3 1.8
256 SA Stevens 13.2 -11.8 1.4
257 Edinburg 10.2 -9.0 1.2
258 La Joya 15.4 -14.5 0.9
259 Laredo Martin 5.2 -4.5 0.7
260 SA Harlandale 10.4 -9.8 0.6
261 Richardson 14.7 -14.2 0.5
262 Pasadena 10.5 -11.2 -0.7
263 Dallas Samuell 4.3 -5.1 -0.8
264 Mission 1.8 -3.5 -1.7
265 CP Vista Ridge 4.9 -6.6 -1.7
266 Laredo Cigarroa 11.7 -13.5 -1.8
267 Eagle Pass 7.2 -9.1 -1.9
268 Edinburg North 6.4 -8.6 -2.2
269 Lubbock 5.2 -7.5 -2.3
270 Weslaco East 12.4 -15.0 -2.6
271 Monterey Tech (Mex.) 1.4 -5.4 -4.0
272 Amarillo Palo Duro 11.1 -15.3 -4.2
273 PSJA Memorial 9.9 -14.3 -4.4
274 Willis 2.9 -7.4 -4.5
275 Austin Anderson 16.6 -21.3 -4.7
276 Laredo United South 11.9 -17.1 -5.2
277 Laredo Nixon 8.7 -14.4 -5.7
278 Donna 6.0 -12.0 -6.0
279 SA Highlands 7.7 -14.1 -6.4
280 Dallas Molina 9.2 -16.9 -7.7
281 Mission Memorial -5.4 -2.4 -7.8
282 Brownsville Lopez 12.2 -20.1 -7.9
283 Mission Sharyland 10.0 -18.2 -8.2
284 Austin Akins 13.2 -21.7 -8.5
285 Dallas WT White 5.2 -14.5 -9.3
286 Bellaire 16.3 -25.9 -9.6
287 Houston St. Thomas 13.5 -24.1 -10.6
288 Brownsville Porter 8.7 -20.1 -11.4
289 Brownsville Hanna -0.1 -11.5 -11.6
290 Canyon Randall 16.9 -29.4 -12.5
291 Dallas Spruce 4.0 -16.7 -12.7
292 Humble Atascocita 6.6 -19.5 -12.9
293 Brownsville Rivera 6.4 -19.9 -13.5
294 Houston Northbrook 2.9 -16.6 -13.7
295 Robstown -10.1 -4.1 -14.2
296 Dallas Adams 6.1 -21.6 -15.5
297 Kingsville King -13.2 -3.6 -16.8
298 McAllen Rowe 8.0 -24.9 -16.9
299 Brownsville Pace 4.9 -23.1 -18.2
300 Gadsden (NM) -2.6 -15.6 -18.2
301 Houston Milby 4.7 -25.0 -20.3
302 Amarillo Caprock 2.4 -22.9 -20.5
303 FW Western Hills 23.0 -43.9 -20.9
304 Eagle Pass Winn 2.3 -23.8 -21.5
305 Katy Seven Lakes 4.1 -26.3 -22.2
306 Laredo Johnson 3.9 -26.1 -22.2
307 Fort Worth Paschal 0.8 -23.2 -22.4
308 Carrizo Springs -0.8 -22.8 -23.6
309 Houston Waltrip -8.6 -19.6 -28.2
310 Houston Austin -0.6 -27.6 -28.2
311 Dallas Sunset -2.5 -26.1 -28.6
312 Houston -9.1 -34.4 -43.5